Loss of chance

Loss of chance (perte de chance) is a concept in French and Swiss civil law recognising that a victim may be entitled to compensation for the loss of a probable opportunity — even if the realisation of that opportunity was not certain. Unlike full loss of profit quantification, loss of chance compensation is proportional to the probability that the lost opportunity would have materialised. It is frequently invoked in commercial disputes (loss of a business contract, interrupted negotiations), M&A litigation (disrupted acquisition processes) and professional liability claims. The quantum is determined by applying the probability factor to the value of the lost opportunity.

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Example: a company demonstrates it had an 70% probability of winning a CHF 5.0 million contract before a competitor's unlawful interference caused it to lose the bid. The court awards loss of chance compensation of 70% × CHF 5.0 million × net margin 30% = CHF 1.05 million — reflecting the probabilistic nature of the lost opportunity rather than the full value of the contract.

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Hectelion quantifies loss of chance in commercial litigation and M&A disputes, applying probability-weighted economic modelling to produce defensible damage estimates.