Business plan (valuation)
A business plan in a valuation context is the prospective document presenting revenue, margin and investment assumptions that directly feed the DCF model. Its critical review is a core component of financial due diligence: seller assumptions are systematically benchmarked against historical performance, sector data and management's documented track record. A 10% overestimation of revenue growth can translate into a 15–25% overvaluation in a DCF — making business plan scrutiny the most economically significant step in every acquisition analysis.
Example: a Swiss services group presents a business plan projecting 18% annual revenue growth for 5 years, against 8% historical growth. Hectelion benchmarks this against the sector median (10%) and documented pipeline (CHF 4.0 million of identified opportunities). The analysis concludes a defensible 12% growth rate — reducing Year 5 EBITDA from CHF 5.2 million to CHF 4.1 million and DCF enterprise value from CHF 38.0 million to CHF 31.5 million: a CHF 6.5 million valuation impact from business plan scrutiny.
Hectelion critically reviews business plans and constructs independent valuation scenarios, providing buyers with a defensible view uninfluenced by seller optimism.
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